中国银行体系贷款供给的决定及其对经济波动的影响

On the Credit Supply and Its Effect on Economic Fluctuation in China

本文使用 1 985年以来的时间序列数据和 1 994年以来的银行间横断面数据 ,通过时间序列模型和纵横数据 (PANEL)模型 ,对中国的货币、信贷供给进行了分析。分析表明 ,贷款增长对经济的解释能力强于货币供应量 ;1 996年以来中国实际贷款增长率年均低于理想值 6个百分点 ,存在惜贷现象 ;不良贷款是制约贷款增长的一个重要因素 ,不良贷款比率每下降 1 0个百分点 ,贷款增长率提高 1 4个百分点 ;我国银行体系对利差已经相当敏感 ,在存款利率不变的条件下 ,贷款利率向均衡水平每移动一个百分点 ,贷款投放将变动

In the article, we analysis the money and credit supply of China by t he time serial model and panel model with the time serial data from 1985 and pan el data from 1994. The results we get by the model show as follows. First, lende rs are reluctant to make loan. Second, non-performing loan is an important fact o r restricting the loan growth. Third, China's banking system is quite sensitive to the loan rate spread. With the deposit rate unchanged, the loan rate moves to wards the equilibrium every 1-percentage point, and then the loan scope will im prove by about 3 percentage points.