基于贝叶斯法的HYMOD模型参数不确定性分析

Analysis of Uncertainty of HYMOD Model Parameters Based on Bayesian Algorithm

结合HYMOD水文模型在枫树坝水库控制流域的应用,采用贝叶斯结合Metropolis-Hastings算法对模型参数进行不确定性分析,得到90%置信区间的流量过程。结果表明,基于贝叶斯的不确定性估计方法能有效降低HYMOD模型参数带来的不确定性。

Combined with HYMOD model application in Fengshuba Reservoir watershed, this paper used the Bayesian algorithm to analyze the parameters uncertainty of hydrological modeling, and a 90% confidence interval was obtained. Case study showed that Bayesian algorithm can control uncertainty result from model parameters effectively.