摘要
丽江古城水源黑龙潭泉群近年来流量丰枯变幅较大,对其进行动态研究与预测对于科学合理地开发利用和管理保护地下水资源有重要的意义。采用时间序列分析方法分析黑龙潭泉域流量变化,将HP(Hodrick-Prescott)滤波方法与ARMA(p,q)模型相结合预测泉域流量,并预报2012—2013年泉域流量。模型拟合及预测结果较好,能准确预测流量变化趋势,但由于断流很难准确模拟,实际应用还应结合降雨等资料综合预测。
The difference of Heilongtan spring group flows between wet and dry period is increasing in recent years,and the seasonal drought events occurred in dry years. Therefore,the dynamic research and prediction of the flows of Heilongtan spring group is important in developing,utilizing and protecting the groundwater scientifically and rationally. In this paper,the time series analysis model is employed to analyze the variation of the flows of Heilongtan spring group. The result is calculated with the combination of HP( Hodrick- Prescott) filter method and ARMA( p,q) model. This method is used to predict flows of spring group between the year of 2012 and2013. The method shows a high accuracy in the short period,and the data shall be continually and promptly updated in practical application.
出处
《人民珠江》
2016年第3期6-9,共4页
Pearl River
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41402223)
