基于SD模型的中山市水安全系统调控措施研究

Research on the Control Measures of Water Security of Zhongshan Based on System Dynamics

水资源是维系社会经济可持续发展的关键,如何协调社会经济发展与区域水安全是水资源管理的重点。以中山市为研究对象,在已建立的水安全系统动力学模型的基础上,分析了水资源特征及其演变规律,并进一步采取相关调控措施。经对比,较常规发展模式,综合调控发展下的水资源供需缺口消失、污水排放量最大下降幅度约达19%、COD排放量下降幅度约达5%、COD入河量对经济影响下降幅度增加3%左右。结果表明,政府在水资源管理中可通过采取一系列调控措施,进而避免因城市发展所带来的水安全问题。

Water resource is the key to maintain the sustainable development of social economy, and how to coordinate social economic development and regional water security is the focus of water resources management. With zhongshan city as the research object, on the basis of water security system dynamics model, the paper analyzed water resources characteristics and evolution law to further take relevant measures. Compared with the conventional development pattern, the water resources supply and demand gap, waste water emissions decreased about 19% and COD emissions into the river discharge decreased about 5% and COD impact on the economic decline increased by about 3% under comprehensive control. The results show that the government can take a series of measures in water resources management to avoid water security problem brought by urban development.