基于R/S与灰色组合模型的窟野河径流预测

Runoff Prediction of Kuyehe River Based on R/S and Grey Combined Model

为提高灰色预测模型在径流预报中的可靠性,且R/S分析法能提供有效的非线性科学预测,将R/S分析与灰色理论相结合,提出了R/S灰色预测组合模型以预报河川径流量。依据温家川站和王道恒塔站实测径流资料,首先对径流序列进行R/S分析,确定序列的Hurst指数H以及循环周期T;然后在T内运用灰色理论对径流序列进行预测。结果表明:R/S灰色预测结果的精度均在80%以上,结果有效可行,可有效用于河川径流预测。

In order to improve the runoff forecast accuracy of rivers, and R / S analysis is a scientific and effective non- linear prediction method, So R / S gray prediction model for predicting runoff sequence is proposed by means of combining gray theory with R / S analysis.Based on the more than 50 years data of measured runoff in Wenjiachuan and Wangdaohengta stations of Kuye River, the runoff series were analyzed by R / S method. The Hurst exponent and average cycle of river runoff series were determined firstly; then, in one cycle,the runoff sequence was predicted by gray. The prediction results show that the prediction accuracy of the model was above 80%, the result is reliable and effective. And it can be effectively used for runoff forecasting.