多因子静态灰色模型在大坝安全监测中的应用

Application of multiple-factor static gray model into dam monitoring

本文结合实例详细地说明了多因子静态灰色模型的建模机理,并用大坝变形监测数据建立了GM(0,N)模型,通过实例计算对模型进行了精度分析,并对大坝的变形态势进行预测,得到了较好的预测精度。将多因子静态模型与回归模型进行比较,进一步说明了灰色系统模型在较少数据情况下的优越性。从而进一步表明灰色系统理论对大坝变形分析来说确实是一种有效的数据处理方法。

By case study,it described the model construction mechanism of multiple-factor static gray model and built up the GM(0,N)model by mean of deformation monitoring data.The model precision was analysed by case calculation and the trend of dam de-formation were forecasted,thus gained the good forecast precision.Comparing multiple-factor static gray model with regression model,it can be proved the advantage of multiple-factor static gray model in the case of less data.Therefore,it showed that the gray system theory is an effective data processing method for dam deformation analysis.