中国出口商品结构的预测分析

Prediction and Analysis of Composition of Export Commodity in China

出口商品结构是指一国对外贸易中各商品组成部分在贸易总体中的地位和比例关系 ,它可以反映国家经济发展水平和商品的国际市场竞争力。运用球坐标变换的成分数据预测方法 ,研究我国出口商品结构的动态变化规律 ,对中国出口商品结构的发展趋势进行分析与预测。研究表明 ,近十年期间我国的出口商品结构正快速由劳动密集型商品向资本密集型和技术密集型商品过渡 ,初级产品比重的不断下降 ,机械及运输设备的比重迅速提高。研究结果为进一步分析我国产业结构的调整方向。

The composition of export commodity is defined as proportion of every kind of product in foreign trade, which shows the level of economic development and the capability of competition of a country in international market. By using predictive modeling approach of compositional data through hyperspherical transformation, the developing trend of the composition of export commodity in China is forecasted. It is indicated that the composition of export commodity in China has been changing from labor intensive products to capital intensive and technology intensive products during the recent years. The proportion of primary products is continuously decreasing while the proportion of mechanical device products is rapidly increasing. The research results in this paper are helpful to improve Chinese industrial structure and to optimize the composition of export commodity in China.