关于中国钢铁总量平衡关系的探讨(上)——最终消费平衡法研究

DISCUSSION ABOUT THE BALANCE OF THE IRON AND STEEL GROSS——THE RESEARCH OF THE FINAL CONSUMPTION BALANCE METHOD

对中国钢铁总量需求的预测目前有各种方法,这些方法都各有利弊。最终消费平衡法根据钢材消费具有生活资料消费和生产资料消费的双重属性,将社会钢材的最终消费简化为生活和生产两类,对有关比例、效率、系数等随时可以按照实际水平进行修正。这种方法不但可以用于中长期宏观经济决策,也可以用于近期经济运行分析。

There are several methods to predict the iron and steel gross demand in China. Each of these methods has advantages or disadvantages. The final consumption balance method is based on the double attribute of steel products in production and living consumption fields. The final consumption of steel products is simply divided into production and living consumption. The relative proportion, efficiency and coefficient could be corrected based on the actual level. This method could be used not only in long period macroscopical prediction but also in near future prediction.