人口和寿命与年代关系:基于家谱资料

Relationships Between Population,Longevity and Era:Based on a Chinese Family Tree

15 0 7～ 2 0 0 0年,潜川盛氏六房成活至 1 5岁及以上的男子女子的出生数、死亡数和净增数总体上呈指数增长型式.不同年代各有差异,净增数的两次剧烈下降出现在明末和清后期,而随后即出现净增数的剧烈上升.平均寿命与年代之间存在极显著相关,其间每推后 5 0年,男子和女子平均寿命分别下降 2.95岁和 3.1 7岁.1 95 1～ 2 0 0 0年出生数和净增数均保持在较高水平,但平均寿命却分别回升至 5 7.8岁和 5 8.4岁,其中 1 991～ 2 0 0 0年分别为 60.3岁和 64.

According to the demographic data from the 6 th branch in Qianchuan Sheng Family, the numbers of births, deaths and net population growth of men and women survived to over 15 years old increased roughly in the exponential function during a period of 1507～2000. However, this growth pattern varied in different periods. Two times of dramatic decreases in the populations of men and women happened in the late years of Ming and Qing dynasties during 1601～1650 and 1851～1900, respectively. After the decreases there were two dramatic increases. Regressions showed that predicted longevities of the men and women decreased by 2.95 and 3.17 years every 50 years during the period. In 1951～2000, the numbers of births and net increases remained at relatively high levels, and longevities of the men and women rebounded to 57.8 and 58.4 years, respectively. In 1991～2000, the longevities were over 60.3 and 64.6 years, respectively.