通径分析在我国粮食生产相关研究中的应用

THE PATH ANALYSIS AND ITS APPLICATION STUDY ON CORRELATION RESEARCH OF CORN PRODUCTION IN CHINA

在介绍通径分析原理的基础上,采用该原理对1978～2000年中国粮食生产的7个影响因子进行了实证研究,力图剖析各因子对粮食生产的相关影响及其因子间的相互影响关系.结果显示化肥施用量、农业机械总动力和有效灌溉面积是决定我国粮食生产的主导因子,农村用电量对粮食生产直接作用不大,但通过化肥投入和农业机械化对粮食生产的间接作用很大.

Based on introducing the principal of the path analysis,and using it,this paper analysis positively the influencing factors of corn production from the year of 1978 to 2000 of China,and the relation between the influencing factors and corn production are studied by the means of path analysis method.The result showes that consumption of chemical fertilizer,total power of agricultural machinery and irrigated area are the main factors deciding the corn production of China,the direct influence of electricity consumed in rural area to the corn production are not great while its indirect influence by other factor such as fertilizer consumption and mechanization of farming are great.