图书期刊出版种数的灰色预测模型

Gray Estimate Model of Publishing Quantity of Books and Journals

利用灰色系统理论建立预测模型,预测未来5年我国图书、期刊的出版情况,并对预测结果进行分析和评价,结果表明:该方法有一定的实用性和科学性;预测应注意模型的应用范围和精度。

Accurately estimating the publishing quantity of books and journals can guide the library's literature purchasing. This paper uses the gray system theories to set up a predicting model, and predicts the publishing quantity of books and journals in China in future 5 years. Through the analysis and evaluation of the result, the method's practical and scientific characters are shown. Finally, it is pointed out that the attention should be paid to the model' s application scale and its accuracy during the predication.