残差辨识模型在环境系统预测中的应用

Application of residual recognizing model in environmental system prediction

环境质量预测在环境治理工作中具有极其重要的作用,因此本文在对阜新市细河水中1997到2000年石油类污染指数进行深入而系统分析的基础上,采用残差辨识模型的预测方法,借助于计算机对2001和2002年度该污染指数进行预测,其结果和与实测值基本趋于一致。由此看出将GM建模理论和环境系统的预测相结合,计算过程简单,结果也较传统的预测方法更为准确。

Environmental quality prediction is important in environmental prediction.Based on deep and systematic analysis of oil pollution index in Xihe river of Fuxin city from 1997 to 2000,we predict the pollution index of 2001 and 2002 by residual recognizing model and get the similar result. So the method combining GM theory with environmental system prediction is accurate and the process of calculation is more simple than traditional ones.