模糊控制理论在棉花烂铃病流行趋势预报中的应用

AN APPLICATION OF FUZZY CYBERNETICS THEORY ON THE MIDDLE PERIOD FORECASTING OF EPIDEMIC TREND OFTHE COTTON BOLL ROT

本文将棉花烂铃病流行趋势预报过程模拟成一个模糊控制系统,预报因子作为系统的输入。预报对象作为系统的输出。根据射阳县1980～1987年棉花烂铃病流行趋势资料,建立了模糊控制预报模型。经1980～1987年回报和1988～1991年预报,结果令人满意。且该模型能超前一个月作出趋势预报,故完全可以应用于预报实践。

The forecasting of epidemic trend of the cotton boll rot was modeled as a fuzzy cybernetics system in this article. The forecasting factors were considered as the input of the system and the forecasting object (is epidemic trend of the cotton boll rot) as the output. Fuzzy cybernetics forecasting model was constructed according to the data of epidemic trend of the cotton boll rot of Sheyang County from 1980 to 1987. The results of the returningforecasting from 1980 to 1987 and the forecasting from 1988 to 1991 were satisfactory. The epidemic trend of the cotton boll rot may be forecasted by the model before on month. Therefore, the model can be used in the practical forecasting of epidemic trend of the cotton boll rot.