最优简单货币政策规则在我国应用的可行性

Feasibility of Implementing Optimal Simple Monetary Policy Rules in China

本文首先根据我国的实际数据,建立和估计混合型模型,并以此作为研究货币政策规则的基本框架。然后在随机模拟的基础上,以社会福利为基准,计算和比较四种货币政策规则对社会福利的影响,同时计算与福利损失等价的通胀率变化,结果表明,最优简单货币政策规则能够很好地近似完全承诺的最优货币政策规则,其具备可行性,这为进一步改进我国货币政策的决策和操作提供了一个指导方向。

In this paper, the author first formulate and estimate a hybrid model based on the actual data of China, and then use this model as a framework for studying monetary policy rules. By means of Stochastic simulations, the author calculate and compare the welfare loss under four monetary policy rules and the variation of inflation rate equivalent to the welfare loss too. The results indicate that the optimal simple rule is a good approximate to the completely commitment optimal rule and is feasible to be implemented, which provides a guide to further improvement about the decision and implementation of monetary policy in China.