航空武器装备全寿命周期风险评估方法比较与改进

Comparison and Improvement of Risk Evaluation Methods for Entire Life Cycle (ELC) of Aeronautic Weapons

针对航空武器装备全寿命周期风险的特点,对评估方法做了适用性比较和选择性研究,给出了各阶段风险评估方法的选择方案。依据灰色系统理论提出了一种改进的评估方法———多层次灰色评估方法,建立了评估模型,给出了算例,本方法具有样本点少、精确度高的特点。

Aimed at the characteristics of the risk ELC of aeronautic weapons, the paper compared the applicabilities of risk evaluation methods, and then put forward different evaluation methods for different stages of ELC. Based on the grey system theory, the paper put forth an improved evaluation method, namely, multi-hierarchy grey evaluation method, which has merits of small sample number and high accuracy, and established an evaluation model with calculating example.