电压骤降和瞬时供电中断概率评估的蒙特卡罗仿真

PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT OF VOLTAGE SAGS AND MOMENTARY INTERRUPTION BASED ON MONTE-CARLO SIMULATION

对动态电能质量中最主要的两个问题——电压骤降和瞬时供电中断进行了研究,提出了基于非序贯蒙特卡罗模拟和电磁暂态仿真相结合的电能质量概率评估新方法和相应的概率评估指标体系。算法利用蒙特卡罗仿真得到各种故障信息,并考虑保护设备的参数及各种故障类型,通过仿真程序PSCAD/EMTDC对蒙特卡罗模拟法随机产生的各种故障形态进行仿真计算,最后分析统计得到系统和敏感负荷点电能质量的各项概率指标。文中以RBTS标准测试系统为例进行了计算分析,算例表明了模型和算法的有效性。计算结果对规划调度有重要的参考价值。

Voltage sags and momentary interruptions are among the most serious dynamic power quality problems. This paper proposes a new probabilistic assessment algorithm of power quality based on non-sequential Monte-Carlo simulation and electromagnetic transient simulation. The authors establish a systematic set of indices for probabilistic assessment of power quality, including the customer-orientated and global system-orientated indices. The advantage of Monte-Carlo simulation approach is that it can reflect the stochastic nature of power system behaviors. The application of the proposed method almost poses no restrictions on the system complexity. The Monte-Carlo simulation generates all kinds of fault information by using reliability data of the components in power system. In the process of electro-magnetic transient simulation by the program of PSCAD/ EMTDC, all fault types and different protection schemes are considered. Finally the power quality indices of system and sensitive load nodes are obtained. The algorithm is proved to be effective and applicable by the numerical results of the IEEE-RBTS test system.