耕地资源的安全评价与预警

An Evaluation and Prediction on the Safety of Cultivated Land Resources

文章提出了耕地资源安全评价指标体系和安全标准,并对我国耕地安全进行评价与预警。文中指出,短期内我国人均占有耕地面积和耕地补充系数处于安全区,但前者在全国范围内差异较大;人均耕地后备资源量不足,处于危险状态;耕地总体质量处于危险到高度危险状态。长期来看,人均占有耕地面积和耕地后备资源量的减少,决定了2010年和2030年我国耕地供给的安全程度处于值得关注区。尽管经过污染治理和生态环境的改善可提高耕地的质量,但耕地供给的压力将是巨大的和长久的。

This paper advances the index system of safety evaluation on cultivated land resource and safety criteria, and evaluates and predicts the safety degree of cultivated land of our country. It points out that, in short term, the indexes of the area of cultivated land per capita of our country and supplementary coefficient of cultivated land show safety, but the former varies in a great degree all over the country. The index of the amount of reserve cultivated land resource is insufficient and shows danger signal. And the total quality of cultivated land shows high danger. But in a long term, the situation that the area of cultivated land per capita and the amount of reserve cultivated land resource decrease determines that the safety degree of cultivated land supply is worth paying close attention to. The quality of cultivated land can be advanced by pollution control and disposition and by the improvement of ecological environment, but the pressure of cultivated land supply will be great and last for ever.