城市竞争力和地产价格——上海市住宅建筑发展分析

Urban Competitive Power and Land Price

近段时期业界人士、学者和政府官员对近年来国内房地产市场价格持续上升是否是“房地产泡沫”一说存在很大争议。本文针对这一现象 ,选择上海市住宅市场具体分析该市住宅的建筑与销售面积、住宅投资额及其来源、存量房结构及其交易量、基础设施投资额、房产公司当年收入来源、人均收入增长率等一系列指标 ,综合考察上海住宅市场的发展过程。我们认为 ,上海住宅市场基本是一个结构不断优化、面向大众消费者并已处于稳步繁荣的良好局面 ,而这一判断基本排除了上海住宅市场存在泡沫的可能性。同时究其根源 ,这一稳步繁荣的局面是以上海在长江三角洲地区进而全国的城市竞争力为基础的。

A recent fierce dispute has erupted between business professionals, scholars and government officials on whether there is 'real estate foam' in the steady growth of the price of domestic housing in recent years. In view of such dispute, Shanghai's housing market was chosen for an analysis. A comprehensive survey of the development of Shanghai's housing market was done by analyzing, point by point, a series of indexes, including construction and sale areas, housing investments and their sources, the structure of existing houses and their trade volume, infrastructure investments, the sources of current revenue of housing companies, as well as per capita growth of income. We hold that Shanghai's housing market is, steadily flourishing with Mass consumers, now in the process of increasing optimization in its structure. Because of Shanghai's competitive power in the Changjiang River Delta and throughout the country, this judgement has ruled out the possibility of existing foam in Shanghai's housing market. In conclusion, this paper makes a few policy related suggestions concerning the maintenance of Shanghai's urban competitive power and the promotion of its flourishing housing market.