从预期的角度看中国“流动性陷阱”

Chinese "Liquidity Trap" in Attitude of Anticipation

对"流动性陷阱"的分析应引入预期的因素,产生"流动性陷阱"的根源是公众对未来经济发展预期出现逆转而导致的有效需求不足。当前,我国经济陷入"流动性陷阱"的可能性来自于公众对经济前景的不利预期,降低了当期的有效需求,削弱了积极货币政策对消费和投资的影响。远离"流动性陷阱"的关键是深化改革以增强公众对未来经济增长和收入增加的乐观预期。

The objectivce of the article is to study Chinese 'liquidity trap'on the basis of the public anticipation affection on the nation's economy systems.From 1990s,some indexes of Chinese economy & finance become worse.The level of consumption and investment didn't improved as fast as ever,the deposit balance in commercial bank increased faster than the loan,the currency liquidity became more and more slowly than ever.The nation economy lost sensitivity to highly expansionary monetary policy.All above shows that it's likely to lead Chinese economy into a 'liquidity trap'.According to Krugman's definition on 'liquidity trap'with analyze,the pessimism reverse of the public anticipation to nation's economy develoment may cause the lack of the effective demands,which would lead the economy into a 'liquidity trap'.Along with deepening the reforming of Chinese nation's economics system,the unemplyoyed from business enterprise and government organization increased rapidly,to the people expect the future income decrease hile the future expenditure gains because social security systems developed behind the demands.The people have to lower the level of present consume to meet the future need.The expected level of economic performance of the business is still low.which restrained the level of investment demands.However,the margin between poor-rich and faultiness capital priched up the negative effect of pessimism anticipation on effective demands,The transmit mechanism of the currency policy'saffect on economy development was blocked and distrted.Especially,Chinese stocks' price went down rapidly from a high level;the public lost their fortune,thich worse the affection of the public anticipation on nation economy.In order to make Chinese economy keep off the 'liquidity trap',it's required attach importance to turn the public anticipation to future economy trend,optimize the public anticipation of economy development and income increasing.It' should to reform the Chinese economic structure and the way of production,perfect the social security systems,along withproceeding deepen the reforming of Chinese nation's economics system,which would turn the public anticipation,promote consume,and stimulate investment.As a result,monetary policy will be effective and 'liquidity trap'can be kept away from Chinese economy.