投标报价决策数学模型探讨

A Mathematical Model for Bid Decision-making

本文针对目前投标报价决策模型中对投标者技术水平、管理水平缺乏考虑的局限性,提出了以“报价优胜概率”和“价格变差概率”为基础,采取表算形式,针对不同风险建立“保守定价法”决策模型。同时提出了投标报价的评估和优化,以求从投标者面对的竞争环境和自身技术、管理水平两方面,确定出合理、科学的报价。对如何正确运用“保守定价法”加强投标报价决策提出了一些建议。

In consideration of the limitation of not taking into account the tenderer's technological and managerial abilities in the existing mathe-models fot bid decision, this paper develops a new model called Conservative Pricing, which is based on the probability of winning a bid and the probability of price-discrepancy. By this model, calculations involved are to be worked out in tables. The paper also discusses the evaluation and optimization of a bid decision, which are very important to deciding on a reasonable ane scientific tender-price according to the tenderer's competitive environment and his techonlogical and managerial abilities. The paper finally gives some suggestions on how to properly use this moedl to improve the tenderer's bid decision.