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区域灾情评价模型 被引量:14

Regional disaster assessment model
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摘要 自然灾害发生的次数和灾害种类与灾情强度密切相关,因此有必要对灾情强度进行合理的评价。首先用灾次指数D_i和灾种指数D_i′来量化单灾种的多发性和多灾种的群发性,提出了计算D_i和D_i′的方法,然后在此基础上建立了量化灾情强度指数Q的模型,该模型适用于单区域和多区域中多种灾害发生的情况。对北京市怀柔、平谷和海淀3个区进行了模型的实例应用,考虑洪灾、冰雹灾和旱灾3种灾害情况,结果表明,怀柔区的灾情强度指数高于平谷和海淀区,3种灾种中冰雹灾的灾情强度指数高达42.76%。 The frequency and kind of natural disasters associate closely with scenario disaster intensity. So it is nec- essary to evaluate reasonably the scenario disaster intensity. Firstly, the repeated occurrence of single disaster and the grouped occurrence of multiple disastersare are quantified by disaster frequency index D_i and disaster category index and the method to calculate D_i' and D_i' is presented. Then on this base a model to quantified disaster intense indexes is set up. The model can be applied when many kinds of disasters happen in a region or some regions. The model is applied to Huairou, Pinggu and Haidian Districts in Beijing, taking account of flood, hail and drought dis- asters. The article draws the conclusions that the disaster intense index in Huairou District is higher than that in Pinggu and Haidian Districts,and the hail disaster intense index of reaches to 42. 76%, being the highest among three disasters.
出处 《自然灾害学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2003年第3期48-53,共6页 Journal of Natural Disasters
基金 国家自然科学基金资助项目(40271005)
关键词 灾情 模型 灾次指数 灾种指数 灾情强度指数 disaster frequency index disaster category index disaster intensity index
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