贵州春季冰雹短期预报的高空温压场相似法

Analogue Method of Aerological Temperature and Pressure Fields of Spring Hailfall's Short-Range Forecast in Guizhou

采用08:00(北京时,下同)500hPa温压场和700hPa温度场相似系数指标值,建立了贵州区域性春季冰雹短期预报模型。建模选用了427个冰雹日个例和484个无雹日个例,分月确定相似预报指标,故所建模型有较大的统计可靠性。预报模型在样本期内的预报准确率为66%,经1999和2001年试报,结果表明,该预报模型有较好的实用价值。

By using the analogus coefficient critical value of 08:00 500 hPa temperature and pressure field and 700 hPa temperature field, spring regional short\|range weather forecast model of hailfall in Guizhou is established, the prediction model is established with 427 hailfall days and 484 non\|hailfall days, it is determined monthly analogus prediction index, consequently they have very largely statistical reliability. Prediction model acuracy for sample period is 66%. The forecasting results in 1999 and 2001 indicate that this method is efficient.