全球平均(零维)气候变化的一条定则和三个猜想

A RULE AND THREE GUESSES ABOUT THE GLOBAL MEAN(ZERO-DIMENSION) CLIMATIC VARIATION

本文指出全球平均温度的气候变化服从“平方根定则”,即对10年以内的温度变幅与时间尺度的平方根成反比;10—10~5年的温度变幅与时间尺度的平方根成正比。提出了三个猜想:1.10—10~5年的气候变化亦受大地热流的变化所支配;2.气候系统的振荡性是其稳定性的固有表现,后者又是由外参数的稳定性所决定的;3.现实的气候态总是围绕在临界稳定态附近摆动,它只是趋于满足某种“极值原理”,并非能真正达到“效率最高”。

The global mean temperature variation obeys the rule of square root, i. e.,thetemperature variation within 10 years is in inverse proportion to and that within 10-10~5years is in direct proportion to the square root of time scale. Three guesses are thusmade: (1)the climatic variation within 10-10~5 years is controlled by the earth heat fluxvariation; (2)the oscillation of the climatic system is an inherent property of its stabili-ty,which is determined by the stability of its outer parameters; (3)the real climatic stateis always vacillating around its critical state of stability,tending toward a kind of ex-treme value principle, rather than the real 'highest efficiency'.