摘要
浑善达克沙区是我国气候变化与人类活动影响较为敏感的地区。近期气候变化特征是60年代冷暖与旱涝年份交替出现,70年代气候暖湿,80年代暖干。与沙化有关的气象要素表现出明显的周期振动,周期长度为2—4年和6—8年不等。建立了年干燥度及年降水量与影响因子的统计模型。采用车比雪夫多项式方法预测该沙区1990和1991年气候分别是暖湿和暖干,与实况相符。
The Hunshandake sand region is an area very sensitive to the climaticchanges related to human activities. The tendency of climatic variations revealed in thisstudy exhibits that the cold/warm and dry/wet periods occurred alternatively during the1960s, warm and humid periods in the 1970s, and warm and arid periods during the1980s. There exists a significant periodical oscillation in the meteorological factors relat-ed to desertification, with its duration varying from 2-4 to 6-8 years. A statisticalmodel is established for various factors including aridity, and annual rainfall amount.The climatic tendency in the sand region predicted for 1990 and 1991 in terms of Cheby-shev polynomials,ie,warm,humid 1990 and warm,arid 1991,is consistent with what ac-tually happened.
出处
《南京气象学院学报》
CSCD
1992年第3期414-421,共8页
Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology
基金
国家气象局气候基金
关键词
气候变化
人类
活动
沙漠化
climatic evolution
human activity
desert
