我国积极财政政策简明仿真模型——继续、淡出与强化情景分析

A Brief Simulation Model of China's Active Fiscal Policy——A Scenario Analysis of Continuity,Fade out and Strengthener

我国财政赤字率由1997年的0.07%快速上升到2002年的3%,达到国际惯例的警戒线。积极财政政策简明仿真模型是研究积极财政政策的有力工具,如实地仿真了我国实施积极财政政策五年来经济发展的轨迹。根据全国人大通过的2003年我国的财政金融政策,模型仿真预测2003年我国经济将增长8.4%。2004-2005年,为保证我国经济年均增长速度不低于7%,我国是否仍需继续积极财政政策,或者使其淡出,或者使其加强,首先取决于世界经济的发展情景:如世界经济年增长3%左右,积极财政政策不能淡出,仍需继续;如世界经济年增长2%左右,积极财政政策必须加强。分析近四分之一世纪世界经济的走向,可以以70%的概率断定,2004-2005年,我国积极财政政策仍需继续。

China's fiscal deficit ratio quickly increased from0.7%in1997to3%in2002,and reached the inter-nationally generally recognized security line.The simulation model of active fiscal policy(SMAFP)is a powerful instrument to research active fiscal policy(AFP.),It accurately simulated the track of China's economic development in the last5years,implementing AFP.According to the fiscal and monetary policies passed by the China's Congress in the March2003,,using SMAFP,we can forecast that in2003China's economy will be increased by8.4%.In2004-2005,in order to guarantee the average annual growth rate of China's economy,will be no lower than7%,whether China still needs to continue AFP or to fade out it or to strengthen it.,This will depend firstly on the world economic development situation.:If world economy would increase by3%annually,China's AFP would be not fade out and should be continued,;if world economy would increase by about 2%annually,,China's AFP must be strengthened.Analyzing the direction of the world economic development in recent century,,it may be concluded with probability of70%that in2004-2005China's AFP would be continued.