新疆历史强震和古地震发震构造的分析及其在中长期预报中的运用(英文)

ANALYSIS OF HISTORICAL MACROQUA-KES AND PALEOSEISMOTECTONICS IN XINJIANG AND ITS APPLICATION IN MEDIUM AND LONG TERM EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

地震构造系潜在震源区的蕴震及发震构造,也是地震所产生的断层和形变带,受活断层及活动褶皱控制。 新疆主要的地震构造位于印度板块和欧亚板块相碰撞的喜马拉雅碰撞带的后陆,多在碰撞期后形成。这些碰撞期后构造就是新疆主要的地震构造,分布于羌塘板块、冈底斯板块、哈萨克斯坦板块和西伯利亚板块相互碰撞地段,即塔里木盆地南北缘、准噶尔盆地南缘及东北缘、伊犁盆地两侧、塔什库尔干谷地、布伦口各地以及鲸鱼湖盆地南缘。 从新疆历史地震断层或形变带的时间及空间分布来看,其活动顺序为:1716年特克斯活断层→1812年喀什河活断层→1842年巴里坤洛包泉活断层→1895年塔什库尔干活断层→1902年托特拱拜孜—阿尔帕勒克活断层→1906年准噶尔盆地南缘活断层→1914年鄯善碱泉子活断层→1924年阿尔金活断层→1931年可可托海—二台活断层→1985年卡兹克阿尔特活断层,反映了地震构造活动的新生性及迁移性。7—8级地震迁移距离为120—1340km,平均为640km。这些地震构造一般都发生过多次古地震,其平均复现期为千年左右。由布伦口活断层、策勒活断层、木孜塔格—鲸鱼湖活断层及霍尔果斯—吐谷里活断层上古地震断层的发现,拜城、库尔勒、吐鲁番和木垒古地震遗迹的展布,以及地震迁移规律等表明,今后十年北天山。

Seismotectonics means seismogenic and earthquake-triggering strcture in latent focal region. It is also called fault and deformation zone caused by earthquakes and is controled by active fault and fold.The main seismotectonics in Xinjiang are located in the hinterland of Himalayan collision belt where India and Eurasion plates collide with each other. They were formed mainly after collision stage and distributed mainly on Qiangtang, Gangdisi plates and the collision section where Hasakesitan and Siberia plates collide, that is , on south and north border of Tarim basin, on south and northeast border of Zhunger basin, on both sides of Yili basin, in Taxkorgan and Bulunkol valley and on south border of the Whale lake basin.Based on the time and space distribution of historical earthquake faults and deformation zones in Xinjiang, the active sequence of main siesmotectonics are as follows Tekesi active fault in 1716→Kashi river active fault in 1812→Luobao spring active fault in 1842→ Taxkorgan active fault in 1895-,-Tuotegonbaizi-Aerpaleke active fault in 1902→active fault of south border of Zhunger basin in 1906→Alkali spring active fault in 1914 Altyn-Tagh active fault in 1924→Keketaohai-Ertai active fault in 1931→Kazikeaerte active fault in 1985, they show regeneration and migration nature of main seismotectonic activity. The distance of earthquake (M≥7) migration is 120-1340km, the average is 640km. Pale-oearthquake occurred many times on these seismotectonics and their average recurrence in- terval is about a thousand years. According to paleoearthquake faults on Bulunkol, Qira, Muztagh - Whale Lake and Horgos - Tuguli active faults, and paleoearthquake traces in Baichen, Korla, Turpan , Urumqi and Mulei etc. , and the law of earthquake migration and so on , there would be earthquake risk with M≥7 on the main seismotectonics of North Tianshan, South Tianshan and West Kulun in the next 10 years.Focal information, slip rate, fracturing pattern and direction etc. informed by main seismotectonics possess important practical significance and scientifical value for studing the activity of modern continental plates and calculating the crustal shrinkage.