日本经济长期停滞的成因之争与政策选择

Debate over and the Choice of Policy for the Causes of the Long-term Stagnancy of Japan's Economy

多年来,日本各界人士就长期经济停滞的原因提出了多种观点。把这些观点可归纳为“结构因素主导论”和“景气因素主导论”两大类。分析两者的基本观点和政策主张,以及双方的意见分歧,笔者认为两类观点都有失之偏颇之处。只有正确认识日本经济基础层面的问题和不同政策的作用,使两者合理配合,才能有效地发挥应有的政策效果。

In the recent years various viewpoints have been put forward by people from all walks of life in Japan about the causes of the long-term stagnancy of Japanese economy, of which two major theories can be summed up, namely, the 'structure as the dominating factor' theory and the 'prosperity as the dominating factor' theory. It is argued in this paper, on the basis of the analysis of their fundamental concepts and the controversy between them, both the two theories err for their partiality. Expected effect of the relevant policies can only be achieved, as is held by this paper, by a correct understanding of the existing problems encountered in the foundation of the economy of Japan and of the effect of different policies and having the two rationally matched up.