社会保障、收入门槛与城镇居民消费升级

Social Security,Income Threshold and Consumption Upgrade of Urban Residents

本文从政府和个人社会保障支出两个维度构建了社会保障消费升级效应的理论分析框架,并运用面板门槛模型对该效应及其异质性进行实证检验。对2003—2015年我国省域城镇居民样本分析的结果表明:(1)总体上看,广义的社会保障财政投入有利于城镇居民扩大和升级消费需求,而政府社会保障支出对中高收入城镇居民的消费升级效应明显,但对低收入居民消费升级的影响不显著;(2)个人社会保障支出对高收入城镇居民消费升级具有促进作用,而对中低收入居民消费升级形成抑制。随着居民收入水平提高,社会保障对城镇居民消费升级的影响将从抑制跃迁为促进。

This paper constructs the theoretical analysis framework of social security consumption upgrade effect from the two dimensions of government and individual social security expenditure.The analysis results of China’s urban residents provincial sample in 2003—2015 show that:(1)Overall,government input into social security on a broader measure is conducive to expanding and upgrading urban residents’consumption needs.Government spending on social security can upgrade the consumption of middle and high income urban residents whereas its effect on consumption upgrades of low-income residents is not significant.(2)Personal,social security spending promotes the consumption upgrades of high-income urban residents,but it inhibits the consumption upgrades of low-income residents.To summarize,with the increase of residential income,the impact of social security on the consumption upgrade of urban residents will shift from restraining to promote.