延迟退休对养老金财富及福利的影响:基于异质性个体的研究

The Effect of Increasing Retirement Age on Pension Wealth and Welfare:A Study Based on Heterogeneous Individuals

本文采用养老金财富、总财富和福利三种指标测算了延迟退休政策对不同类型劳动者的影响。结果表明,延迟退休年龄会使得养老金财富下降,但女性养老金财富下降幅度较小。延迟退休带来的总财富变化为养老金财富变化加上延迟退休后工作年限增加带来的工资收入之和。对大多数人而言,延迟退休可增加总财富,且延迟退休年龄越大,总财富增加越多。但对于收入较低者而言,延迟退休带来的总财富增加较少。总体看,延迟1年,只有7%的男性和4%的女性总财富会下降。福利指标综合了货币财富和闲暇带来的效用,延迟退休带来的福利改善幅度小于总财富的增加幅度。延迟退休5年,会使得71%的男性劳动者和6%的女性劳动者福利受损。本文对于延迟退休年龄具有直接的政策含义。

Employing three indicators,i.e.pension wealth,total wealth and welfare,we simulate the effect of increasing retirement age on heterogeneous individuals.We find that increasing retirement age will reduce pension wealth,but the reduction for women is less than for men.Change of total wealth after increasing retirement age is defined as the sum of change of pension wealth and extra wage earnings caused by additional working years.For the majority of people,increasing retirement age will lead to an increase of total wealth,and the older the retirement age is,the more increase in total wealth.However,the increase of total wealth is less for the lower income group.Generally speaking,there are about 7%of men whose total wealth will be reduced after increasing retirement age by 1 year and the figure is 4%for women.Welfare indicator takes both monetary wealth and utility from leisure into consideration.The improvement of welfare is less than that of wealth.When increasing retirement age by 5 years,there are 71%of men and 6%of women whose welfare will be worse off.Policy implications can be obtained directly from the results.