房价上涨、产品贸易性与工业就业

Housing Price Rising, Tradability of Product and Industrial Employment

房价变化对劳动力就业存在复杂的影响,文章致力于解决如下两个问题:一是我国房价上涨如何影响工业劳动力就业,二是该影响通过何种途径加以传导。文章利用我国全部国有企业及规模以上工业企业数据进行实证研究,结果表明,房价上涨的"需求效应"和"担保效应"超过"挤出效应",使得工业企业的劳动力就业增加。具体而言,房价每上涨10%,企业雇佣人数将增加约0.5%。文章进一步考察了房价变化对不同产品贸易类型企业劳动力就业的影响,发现房价影响劳动力就业的"需求效应"和"担保效应"都存在,且大小相当。文章的发现有助于全面认识房价变化对我国实体经济的影响,为我国房价调控及促进就业相关政策的讨论提供了实证支持。

Housing price fluctuation has an important effect on employment, which has not been paid enough attention to. Since the global financial crisis in 2007, declining housing price,decreasing consumption and increasing unemployment have coincided, which promotes academia to think more deeply about the impact of housing price fluctuation on the real economy. The research on the impact of housing price fluctuation on the real economy gradually expands to the impact on employment. In the recent twenty years, the housing price has been in a rising cycle in China. This paper studies the impact of the rising housing price on the employment in China. It is mainly devoted to solving the following two problems: one is how the rising housing price in China affects the employment in industrial enterprises;the other is how the impact is transmitted.The impact mechanism of housing price changes on the employment in industrial enterprises mainly includes the following three types: crowding-out effect, demand effect and collateral effect.Subsequently, this paper empirically examines the impact of the rising housing price on the employment in industrial enterprises by using the data from the database of all state-owned industrial enterprises and non-state-owned industrial enterprises above the designated size from the National Bureau of Statistics. After controlling a series of individual and regional characteristic variables, the results of ordinary least square regression based on mixed cross-sectional data and fixed effect regression based on panel data both show that the rising housing price increases the number of employees. Further, all enterprises are divided into two categories: those producing tradable goods and those producing non-tradable goods. Since the demand for non-tradable goods mainly depends on the local market and the demand for tradable goods depends on the national or even global market, the demand effect expects that the rising housing price will have a greater impact on the employment in enterprises producing non-tradable goods than on that in enterprises producing tradable goods. But the collateral effect has no such difference. These results show that the rising housing price increases the employment both in enterprises producing tradable goods and in enterprises producing non-tradable goods. And the increase of the employment in enterprises producing non-tradable goods is greater than that in enterprises producing tradable goods. Therefore, both the demand effect and the collateral effect exist. This paper will help to deepen the understanding of how the housing price affects the real economy from the perspective of employment, and provide empirical support for the discussion of the housing price regulation and employment-related policies in China.