基于VAR的山东省碳排放与经济增长关系

The relationship between the carbon emissions and economic growth based on the VAR model in Shandong province

基于2000-2014年山东省的碳排放数据和经济增长的数据,应用VAR模型分析了碳排放与经济增长之间的关系,对山东省2015-2020年的碳排放与经济增长进行了预测.结果表明:碳排放与经济增长的关系是单向因果关系,山东省的单位GDP碳排放在2020年将会下降到0.3825万吨/亿元,相比2005年降低59.4%,能够完成我国政府所提出的到2020年单位GDP的碳排放相比2005年降低40%~45%的目标.

The paper analyzed the relationship between carbon emission and economic growth with VAR model and predicted the trend of it during the period of 2015-2020 based on the data of car-bon emission and economic development from 2000 to 2014.The results showed that the relation-ship between carbon emission and economic growth is one-way causality.Carbon emissions per u-nit of GDP of Shandong province will fall to 3825 tons/million yuan in 2020,decreased by 59.4%compared to that of in 2005,which will complete the target proposed by the government to reduce about 40% to 45% of carbon emission per unit of GDP.