山东地区气候要素变化特征分析及预测

Analysis and Prediction of Change Characteristics of Main Climatic Factors in Shandong Province

基于山东地区的自然环境和社会经济状况,以降水和气温作为气候变化的表现因子,采用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall分析、有序聚类分析、Morlet小波分析和重标极差分析方法,研究了山东地区1951~2015年降水和气温的趋势性、突变性、周期性和持久性,并通过R/S法对未来降水和气温进行预测。结果表明,1951~2015年山东地区降水基本呈不显著减少趋势,气温序列基本呈显著增加趋势;降水和气温的显著突变点主要发生于1960年代初、1970年代中、1980年代末和1990年代末;降水周期主要为3、11、16年,气温周期主要为6、16年;在未来周期时段内,降水和气温总体基本保持状态持续性。

In view of the natural environment and socio-economic situation,taking precipitation and temperature as climate change factors,the tendency,mutability,periodicity and durability of precipitation and temperature in Shandong Province were analyzed by using the method of linear tendency estimation,Mann-Kendall analysis,sequential clustering,Morlet wavelet analysis and rescaled range analysis.And then R/S was used to forecast the precipitation and temperature in future.The results show that precipitation was indistinctively decreasing and temperature was significantly increasing in general from 1951 to 2015;the significant mutational sites of precipitation and temperature mainly occurred in the early1960 s,the mid-70 s,the late 1980 sand the late 1990s;the precipitation cycles are mainly 3a,11 aand 16a,and the temperature cycles are mainly 6aand 16a;the precipitation and temperature will hold continuity in general in the next cycle period.