摘要
随着PPP模式在水利工程中的应用越来越多,其风险也越来越突出,为准确评价水利工程PPP项目投资风险,提出基于云模型的模糊综合评价模型。首先建立水利PPP项目投资风险评价指标体系,根据PPP项目库专家的反馈,确定评价指标重要性程度标准表和风险评价等级标准表,然后由PPP项目专家对各评价指标进行定量评分和定性权重,再计算云参数,确定水利PPP项目投资风险模糊综合评价云模型,通过观察云图判断投资风险可接受程度等级。在湖南省莽山水库PPP项目的应用结果表明,该方法可为水利PPP项目投资风险论证提供一定的理论指导。
With the public-private-partnership mode being applied in the Water Conservancy Engineering,its risk has become increasingly prominent.In order to evaluate the investment risk of public-private-partnership project in Water Conservancy Engineering,a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based cloud model is proposed.Firstly,the index system of investment risk evaluation in water conservancy PPP project is established.Secondly,according to the feedback from experts of PPP project library,the standard table of importance degree of risk evaluation index and the standard table of risk rank are set up.Then the experts of PPP project quantitatively score and qualitatively weigh the evaluation indexes of water conservancy PPP project.Next,the cloud parameters are calculated to determine the cloud model of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of risk investment in Water Conservancy Engineering.Finally,the level of acceptable investment risk is determined by observing the cloud map.It is proved that this method can provide some theoretical guidance for evaluating the investment risk of the PPP project in Water Conservancy Engineering through the project of Mangshan reservoir in Hunan Province.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2017年第8期141-144,共4页
Water Resources and Power
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51379110)
关键词
水利工程
投资风险评价
PPP模式
云模型
water conservancy engineering
evaluation of investment risk
public-private-partnership model
cloud model
