大汶河戴村坝径流序列一致性影响分析

Runoff Series Consistency Test of Daicun Dam in Dawen River

基于大汶河流域戴村坝水文站1952~2014年径流、降水及蒸发资料,采用双累积曲线法、有序聚类法及游程检验法、Kendall秩次相关检验法、t检验法、累积量斜率变化率比较法对流域径流序列进行一致性分析和检验,并计算了气候变化和人类活动对径流量变化的贡献率。结果表明,大汶河戴村坝流域年径流序列呈逐渐下降趋势,且变化趋势显著,突变年份发生在1964年,一致性不好;研究流域降水量、蒸发量和人类活动对径流变化的相对贡献率分别为15.809%、23.678%和60.513%,说明在大汶河戴村坝流域,人类活动影响较自然气候变化对径流量变化的影响更大,研究结果可为大汶河流入东平湖后的一系列优化调度计算提供合理数据。

This paper takes Daicun dam hydrological station in Dawen basin as the research object.Based on the runoff,precipitation and evaporation data from 1952 to 2014,double cumulative curve method,ordered clustering method,run-length testing method,Kendall rank correlation test method,t-test method and cumulative rate of change method were used to analyze and test the consistency of runoff series.And then the contribution rate of climate change and human activities to runoff change was calculated.The results show that the annual runoff appears an overall decreasing trend,and the change trend is obvious.The abrupt change year occurred in 1964,and the consistency is not good.The relative contribution rates of precipitation,evaporation and human activities to runoff change are 15.809%,23.678% and 60.513%,respectively.It demonstrates that the impact of human activities on the runoff change is greater than that of climate change.The results of this study can provide reasonable data for water resources optimal scheduling when Dawen river flow into Dongping Lake.