HadGEM2-ES气候模式下黄淮平原典型区域作物灌溉需水量响应

Response of Irrigation Water Requirement to Typical Regional Crops in Huanghuai Plain Based on HadGEM2-ES Climate Model

基于最新的CMIP5中HadGEM2-ES全球气候模式预估数据,研究黄淮平原典型区域中牟县作物灌溉需水量对未来气候变化的响应。根据HadGEM2-ES全球气候模式预估的逐日降水、气温数据,结合研究区气象历史资料,建立气象要素统计降尺度模型,预测RCP8.5、RCP4.5、RCP2.6高、中、低三种排放情景下研究区气象要素,并由Penman-Monteith公式计算主要作物冬小麦和夏玉米的灌溉需水量,分析作物灌溉需水量对未来气候变化的响应。结果表明,未来气候情境下,气温升高,蒸发量增大,降水量有所增加,导致研究区冬小麦灌溉需水量减少,夏玉米灌溉需水量增大。从三种气候情景的平均预测结果来看,未来15年冬小麦灌溉需水量减少10.73%,夏玉米灌溉需水量增加14.23%;未来35年冬小麦灌溉需水量减少15.74%,夏玉米灌溉需水量增加18.03%。

Based on the latest climate prediction data of HadGEM2-ES in CMIP5,this paper studied the response of crop irrigation water requirement to the future climate change in Zhongmou county,which is the typical area of Huanghuai Plain.According to the daily precipitation and temperature data forecasted in the HadGEM2-ES global climate model,and combined with the historical meteorological data in the study area,we established the meteorological element downscaling model to forecast the meteorological factors in high,medium and low emission scenarios of the study area,which include theRCP8.5,RCP4.5and RCP2.6.Then,the Penman-Monteith formula was used to calculate the irrigation water requirement of the main crop winter wheat and summer maize.Finally,the response of crop irrigation water requirement to the future climate change was analyzed.The results show that the temperature,evaporation and precipitation all increase in the future climate scenarios,which leads to the decrease of irrigation water requirement of winter wheat and the increase of irrigation water requirement of summer maize.From the average forecast results of the three climate scenarios,the irrigation water requirement of winter wheat may decrease by 10.73%,and the irrigation water requirement of summer maize may increase by 14.23%in the next 15 years.The irrigation water requirement of winter wheat may decrease by 15.74%,and that of summer maize may increase by 18.03%in the next 35 years.