水力发电PPP项目特许期决策模糊仿真研究

Research on Fuzzy Simulation of Concession Period Decision for Hydropower PPP Project

为建立水力发电PPP项目特许期决策模糊仿真模型,以准确决策水力发电PPP项目的特许期,确保项目成功运营。首先,针对水力发电PPP项目特点,筛选出影响特许期决策的主要因素,并将其归纳为确定性因素与模糊不确定性因素。其次,依据水力发电PPP项目现金流量,构建运营成本、运营收入函数,运用Monte Carlo方法计算项目各年累计净现值与净现值大于零时的累计概率。最后,比较不同内部收益率水平下的累计概率,计算水力发电PPP项目的合理特许期,并对来水量与上网电价两个因素参数进行敏感性分析。结果表明,该模型能定量计算水力发电PPP项目特许期;相较上网电价,来水量对特许期决策的影响更为显著。研究成果可为水力发电PPP项目特许期的确定提供参考。

To accurately determine the concession period of hydropower PPP project and ensure project success,a fuzzy decision simulation model of concession period for hydropower PPP project was built.Firstly,according to the characteristics of hydropower PPP project,the main influencing factors of concession period were screened out,and the factors were divided into certainty factors and fuzzy uncertain factors.Secondly,based on the PPP project cash flow,the functions of operating costs and operating income were built,and the cumulative net present value and cumulative probability which the net present value is greater than zero were calculated using Monte-Carlo method.Finally,the reasonable concession period of PPP project was calculated by comparing the cumulative probability under different internal rate of return,and sensitivity of incoming water and electricity price was analyzed.The results show that the model can be used to calculate the concession period of PPP project,and the influence of water inflow on concession period is more significant than feed-in tariff.The research results can provide reference for the determination of concession period of hydropower PPP project.