江苏省东台市近65年气温和降水量特征分析

Characteristics of Annual Mean Temperature and Precipitation of Jiangsu Dongtai in Recent 65 Years

分析江苏省东台市的水文气象变化对该区域的开发管理意义重大。基于江苏省东台站1951~2015年月平均气温、逐月降水量序列资料,采用5年滑动平均法、Spearman秩次相关法、Mann-Kendall法、有序聚类分析法、滑动t检验法、Morlet小波法和R/S分析等方法,对东台市的年平均气温和年降水量进行趋势分析、突变检验、周期分析,并预测未来变化趋势,选取降水集中度和集中期等指标分析降水的年内分配特征。结果表明,东台市近65年气温呈显著上升趋势,在1993年发生突变,20年尺度下周期震荡最强,未来气温将持续上升;降水量存在减小趋势但不显著,1965年发生突变,存在22、13、9、3年的多时间尺度周期,未来降水量仍将减少;降水年内分配不均,但未来趋于均匀,集中期由7月逐渐前移。研究成果可用于指导该区域的水资源开发与管理。

The analysis of hydrological and meteorological changes in Dongtai City,Jiangsu province is of great significance to the development and management of this area.Based on the monthly mean temperature and precipitation data(1951-2015)in Dongtai City,the variation trend,mutation points and periodicity of annual mean temperature and precipitation were analyzed by using 5-year moving average method,Spearman rank correlation method,Mann-Kendall method,sequential cluster analysis method,sliding t-test,Morlet wavelet analysis and R/S analysis,and the future trend was forecasted.The indexes of precipitation concentration degree and precipitation concentration period were selected to analyze the annual distribution characteristics of precipitation.The results show that the annual mean temperature of Dongtai City in recent 65 years increases significantly;it changes abruptly in 1993,and the cycle shakes most at the scale of 20-year,the temperature continues to rise in the future;the annual precipitation has an insignificant decreasing tendency,1965 is the mutation point,there are multi-scale cycles of 22-year,13-year,9-year and 3-year,the precipitation will decrease in the future;the inter-annual distribution of precipitation is uneven but tends to become uniform,the concentration period will gradually move forward from July.The results can be used to guide the development and management of water resources in this area.