寒潮关键区冬季气温变化的研究

Winter Temperature Changes Characteristics Analysis in Cold Wave Key Area

为研究我国寒潮关键区冬季气温时空分布特征,利用寒潮关键区1980~2013年冬季年平均气温资料,采用一元线性方程、5年滑动平均、EMD经验模态分解、EOF正交函数分解等方法分析了冬季气温变化规律。结果表明,寒潮关键区冬季气温在波动中逐年递减,每10年减少约0.24℃,且在2005年之前冬季气温相对较高;寒潮关键区冬季年平均气温具有3、5~10、20年三种时间尺度的演变周期;寒潮关键区冬季年平均气温具有全区域一致性、西北-东南型、西南-东北型的分布特征。研究结果为分析寒潮天气提供理论基础。

To study the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of winter temperature in cold wave key area of China,based on the winter annual average temperature data from 1980-2013,linear equation,5-year moving average,EMD、EOF were used to analyze the variation of winter temperature.The results show that the volatility of winter temperature in the cold wave key area decreased year by year,and it reduced 0.24℃ every 10 years;the winter temperature is relatively high before 2005;winter annual average temperature exists three time-scale evolution cycle(3,5-10,20 years);winter annual average temperature has regional consistency characteristics with the distribution of NorthwestSoutheast,and Southwest-Northeast.The results provide a theoretical basis for the analysis of cold wave weather.