基于三角模糊数的联系数模型的水资源承载力评价

Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based on Triangle Fuzzy Connection Number Model

针对水资源系统的模糊性和不确定性,基于集对分析理论,构建水资源承载力评价指标体系,采用主成分分析法确定权重,建立联系数模型评价水资源承载力等级。同时,用三角模糊数表示联系数中的差异度系数,表现其在区间[-1,1]上的随机性和不确定性,运用期望-方差排序法对模型评价结果排序,再进行综合分析。对山东省2006～2015年数据进行实例分析结果表明,山东省水资源承载力水平呈波动状态,但总体呈逐步提升趋势;通过权重分析提取影响山东省水资源承载力的主要因素为农业用水效率、水资源量和水生态环境,在天然水资源量基本稳定的情况下,提高农业用水效率、改善水生态环境可有效提升水资源承载力水平。

Based on set pair analysis theory,the evaluation index system for water resources carrying capacity was established considering the fuzziness and the uncertainty of water resources system.The principal component analysis method was used to determine the weights.A connection number model was established to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity.Meanwhile,the coefficient of the degree of difference in the connection number was represented by the triangle fuzzy number to express its randomness and uncertainty in the interval[-1,1].The results of the model evaluation were ranked using the expectation-variance ranking method and then comprehensively analyzed.Using the data from 2006 to 2015 in Shandong Province for example analysis,the results show that the level of water resources carrying capacity in Shandong Province fluctuates,but it tends to increase gradually.Through the weight analysis,the main factors affecting the water resources carrying capacity in Shandong Province are agricultural water use efficiency,water resources,and water ecological environment.Under the condition of stable natural water resources,increasing the efficiency of agricultural water use and improving the water ecological environment can effectively improve water resources carrying capacity.