基于优化果蝇算法和统计模型的混凝土坝变形预测模型及应用

Deformation Prediction Model of Concrete Dam and Its Application Based on Drosophila Algorithms and Statistical Model

鉴于构建大坝安全监测模型时传统统计模型拟合精度受样本系列长度、资料可靠性、拟合方法等多种因素影响,提出一种基于优化果蝇算法和统计模型的混凝土坝变形预测模型,利用优化果蝇算法对统计模型各项系数进行优化,以提高统计模型的预测精度。对某混凝土拱坝变形的拟合和预测结果表明,相比于统计模型,基于优化果蝇算法和统计模型的变形预测模型预测精度更高,拟合效果更好。

In view of the fact that the fitting accuracy of the traditional statistical model is affected by many factors such as the length of sample series,the reliability of data and the fitting method,a deformation prediction model of concrete dam was proposed based on the Drosophila algorithm and statistical model.The Drosophila algorithm was used to optimize the coefficients of the statistical model for improving the prediction accuracy of the statistical model.The fitting and prediction results of a concrete arch dam deformation show that the prediction accuracy of the deformation prediction model based Drosophila algorithm and statistical model is higher and the fitting effect is better than that of the statistical model.