基于改进云模型的水利工程项目成本风险管理研究

Research on Cost Risk Management of Water Conservancy Project Based on Modified Cloud Model

项目成本风险评价是水利工程项目成本风险管理的重要内容,在建立项目风险因素层次结构的基础上,提出利用改进云模型实现对项目成本的风险评价。该模型全面顾及到专家定性评价的随机性、模糊性及不确定性,将AHP法和熵权法对应求解的主观权重及客观权重与云模型计算的初始权重相耦合,利用组合评价法确定各风险因子的重要程度。将所提方法应用于工程实例,验证了模型的有效性及适用性,进一步拓展了云模型在水利领域的应用。

Project cost risk assessment is an important part of cost risk management of water conservancy project.Based on the establishment of hierarchy of project risk factors,the risk evaluation of project cost was proposed by using improved cloud model.The model fully took into account the randomness,fuzziness and uncertainty of expert qualitative evaluation.The subjective weights and objective weights corresponding to the AHP method and the entropy weight method with the initial weights calculated by the cloud model were coupled,and the combined evaluation method was used to determine the importance of each risk factor.The method was applied to the engineering example to verify the validity and applicability of the model,and further expand the application of cloud model in water conservancy.