全球变暖“停滞”研究综述

Review on global warming “hiatus”

全球变暖"停滞"现象自提出以来,备受关注,是近来全球气候变化领域的热点问题。全球变暖停滞主要表现为全球平均表面温度在1998-2012年增温速率明显偏低。除此之外,大气环流和海洋环流也发生了显著改变。在归因分析方面,很多科学家认为太平洋年代际振荡发挥了重要作用,另外的可能因素还有大西洋经向翻转环流和南极底层水的改变等。然而,由于观测资料在时间一致性和空间覆盖区域等方面存在偏差,从而为全球变暖停滞增添了诸多不确定性。但气候系统内部变率发生改变,导致深层海洋吸收热量增多是众多科学家的共识。尝试解答变暖停滞研究中的不确定性问题,观测资料的丰富和完善是必要条件。

Global warming 'hiatus' has attracted much attention since it was put forward, which is a hot issue in the field of global climate change. It is mainly manifested by the lower warming rate of the global mean air surface temperature than before during 1998-2012. Besides, the atmospheric circulation and ocean circulation have also changed significantly. In the attribution analysis of global warming 'hiatus', many scientists believe that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation plays an important role. Other possible factors may include changes of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and Antarctic Bottom Water. However, there are biases in temporal consistence and spatial coverage of observation data, which increase the uncertainty of global warming 'hiatus'. Nevertheless, it is the consensus of many scientists that the internal variability of the climate system changed and then led to the increased absorption of heat in the deep ocean. If the uncertainty of the global warming hiatus is hoped to be resolved, the enrichment and improvement of observation data is a tough requirement.