混合极值理论及最大似然法估计东南沿海各地震区地震危险性

Application of Gumbel Mixture Extreme Theory and Maximum Likelihood to Estimate the Seismic Risk of Southeast Coastal Area of China

将东南沿海地区划分成七个地震区带,利用历史及现代地震资料,运用混合极值理论及最大似然法分析了各个地震区带的地震危险性.并采用预测检验的方法确定了各个地震区带的危险阈值,对各地震区未来三年的中小地震及未来五年的中强地震的危险性分别给出了定量的估计.

Gumbel extreme statistics method have got extensive application in the research on seismicity.Gumbel's type I(GI(x))and typeⅢ(GⅢ(x))extreme value probability distribu-tions have been used in studying seismicity by many Foreign and domestic scientists.