1995年7月至1996年2月中缅边境、武定及丽江大地震的断层形变前兆初步分析

The Preliminary Anatomy of Fault Deformation Premonition Prior to Some Strong Earthquakes

一、引言 1995年7月至1996年2月7个月内,云南省境内由南向北连续发生中缅边境7.3级、武定6.5级、丽江7.0级地震,如此连发性地震在历史上也少有。震前断层形变测点均有较好的中期及短期前兆反应,云南省地震局曾将永胜测点的较大异常做为对中缅边境7.3级大震预测的重要依据之一,国家地震局地壳应力研究所又根据永胜巨大异常系列的发展曾对丽江7.0级地震进行过预测,国家地震局预报中心在震前又根据永胜变化进一步确定了丽江地震危险区.

Fault deformation anomalies before the 1995 China—Burma boundary earthquake with Afs=7.3,the 1995 Wuding earthquake with Ms^6.5,and the 1996 Lijiang earthquake with Afs=7.0 have been analyzed in this paper.The premonition time of these three earthquakes lasted 14 to 17 months.Synthetically analyses show that the regional premonition developed generally From south to north,while the local premonition appeared from the epicenter towards far distance.The most obvious premonition observed at florae sites where reflect the events best.