用体应变潮汐因子变化开展地震预报研究

Earthquake Prediction Research by Using the Tide Factor of Bulk Strain Variation Observed in Beijing Area

80年代末,我国自行研制的TJ-1型钻孔式体应变仪,已取得一批实测资料,其中包括地球的固体潮。观测系统对固体潮的响应与测区岩体的力学性质有关。岩性不同,其响应程度亦不同;岩性改变,响应程度也会改变。当地震孕育到一定阶段后,孕震区的微裂隙出现扩展串通,介质性质发生变化,地球对潮汐力的响应也会发生变化,高精度测量系统记录的固体潮就会发生畸变。通常只在一定范围波动的潮汐振幅因子(即实测应变潮汐振幅与理论潮汐振幅之比),此时便会出现偏离基值的下降型异常变化。二、固体潮调和分析固体潮就是地球固体部分在太阳和月亮引潮力作用下产生的内部应力或应变。对应变固体潮资料作调和分析,是提取地震信息、预报地震的方法之一。

The tide factor of bulk strain variation observed in stations in Beijing area are analyzed for studying the relation between the factor anomalies and quakes. By verifying some earthquake cases, the results show that the tide factor anomalies have a certain relations with earthquakes. It is proposed in this paper that the tide factor of bulk strain variation can be used for researches of mid-short-term earthquake prediction.