伽师地区地震活动与中国大陆其它地区地震活动的相关性研究

A Study on the Correlation of Seismic Activities in the Jiashi Area and in the Other Areas of Chinese Continent

中国地处欧亚板块的东南部,为印度板块及太平洋板块、菲律宾板块所夹持。帕米尔块体则是印度板块与欧亚板块碰撞的西北边界地区。该地区是强震频发区。在我国,本世纪的几个活跃期中,该区均有强震发生。帕米尔地区强震的发生显示了本区构造活动的加剧,这是否会引起中国大陆其它块体的构造运动出现失稳状态而发震,是我们所关心的问题。本文通过地震活动的统计对此进行了分析和研究。 1996年伽师地区发生7.1级地震后,1997年又连续发生6级以上地震7次,这是否会引起我国大陆其它地区中强地震的发生?为此我们对帕米尔地区1900年以来发生6级以上地震后三年内中国大陆13个地区地震发生的情况进行了较详细的分析。

Statistical analyses have been made to study the correlation of seismic activities in the Jiashi and its adjacent areas in Pamirs to that of the other regions. In Chinese continent, 14 seismic regions are divided for statistical purposes. The results show that since 1900, after an earthquake with M>6 had occurred in the Jiashi and its adjacent areas in Pamirs, it was possible to have strong earthquakes occurred correspondingly in the other regions in the next 3 years. And, the possibility of strong earthquake occurrence in other regions in the next a few years (the 'corresponding rate') differs for different regions. Statistics shows that the high corresponding-rate regions are the eastern and western part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the Circum-Bohai, and the Southeastern Coastal Region. The corresponding rate is low in some other regions such as the 'North-South Seismic Zone' and Mt. Qilianshan. Considering the continuous occurrences of strong earthquakes with M>6 in the Jiashi area since 1997, we propose that, in the coming 1-3 years, it seems more possible to have earthquake(s) occurred in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau with M≥6, and in the Circum-Bohai and the Southeastern Coastal Seismic Zone with M≥5.