赤城地温测点的映震能力及特征分析

Earthquake-Response Capacity and Features of the Chicheng Geo-temperature Observatory

一、引言近年来,首都圈一直被列为地震重点监视区,而地温动态观测作为短临预报的主要手段之一,越来越受到人们的广泛关注。首都圈的地温动态观测,自80年代末至今,已有10余年的观测历史。这期间,在首都圈陆续布设了一些测点,使地温观测网逐渐趋于完善。1989年大同—阳高M_S6.1地震、1996年包头M_S6.4地震及1998年张北—尚义M_S6.2地震前都记录到了明显的地震地温短临前兆异常。根据异常曾对张北地震作了一定程度的预报。

Geo-temperature data of four years observed at the Chicheng Observatory,Hebei Province,have been analyzed.The results show that the geo-temperature values have nothing to do with variations of environmental rainfall and groundwater level and the’earthquake-response ratio’of the geo-temperature anomalies is of 53.6%.The false prediction ratio is of 46.4%.The correlation between the geo-temperature anomalies and relevant earthquakes has passed statistical tests.The pattern of geo-temperature anomalous curves is of upraise-flatting or upraise-drop type.However,the period of the anomalies is not related to earthquakes.