首都圈地区跨断层位移流动观测资料的地震预测效能

Prediction Efficiency of mobile observatory data of displacement across faults in Capital Circle

一、引言地震的孕育是一个复杂的动力学过程,地壳介质的差异、构造间的交互作用以及观测环境等原因,导致一个地震事件往往具有不确定性。利用前兆异常来准确地预测未来地震的发生,是一个较难且较复杂的问题,而给出预报的信度和概率,正是以物理为基础的概率性预报所不可缺少的基本参数。许绍燮先生提出了用R值作为震兆信度的鉴定指标,R值为扣除了随机概率的预报成功率,后来人们均以R值来估计震兆的置信度。

Fault displacement measurement data obtain from 25 mobile sites in the Capital Circle(N34°~43°,E112°~122°)and earthquakes with M_S≥5.0 that occurred in/or near the Capital circle since 1970 have been analyzed by using the R-value calculation method proposed by Xu Shaoxie,to work out the reliability of precursory anomalies.R-value is a quantitative measure for predicting potential shocks and its believability is relatively high.