甘肃玉门M_s5．9级地震的中期预测分析

Medium-term Prediction of the M_S5. 9 Earthquake of Yumen, Gansu

利用青藏块体东北缘60余处跨断层位移流动测点的观测资料,结合昆仑山口西8．1级地震的孕震过程及震后对青藏块体东北缘构造活动的影响,由区域断层活动特征、形变测点的异常特征和区域地震活动特征,对2002年12月14 日甘肃玉门Ms5．9级地震做出中期预测。

The observations of cross-fault displacement measurement at more than 60 sites along the northeast margin of Qin-Zang block were used in earthquake prediction,taking into account the effect of preparation and occurrence of the Kunlun MS8.1 earthquake on the tectonic activities of the northeast margin of Qin-Zang block.By analyzing the characteristics of fault activity,deformation anomaly,and seismicity in the region,an medium-term forecast was made for the MS5.9 Yumen,Gansu,earthquake of Dec.14,2002.