大青山山前活动断裂的分段地震危险性概率评估

Occurrence probability of characteristic earthquakes on the segments of daqingshan piedmont fault

在前人对大青山山前断裂古地震的研究以及断裂的破裂分段特征基础上,采用甘卫军建立的板内大震原地准周期复发概率密度函数,对大青山山前断裂的大震危险性概率作了定量评估。所得结果表明,大青山山前断裂未来百年内东段的地震危险性要显著大于西段,尤其在呼和浩特段未来发生7级或7级以上大震的可能性最大。

Based on the research of paleoseismic activity and rupture segmentation along the Daqingshan piedmont fault, we estimated the occurrence probability of large earthquakes along the fault quantitatively, using the probability density function of the recurrence intervals of intraplate large earthquakes from Gan Weijun. The results suggest that in the next 100 years, the east segments have obviously higher possibility for a large earthquake than the west segments along the Daqingshan piedmont fault, especially the Hohhot segment has the biggest probability for an earthquake larger than magnitude 7.